NCRA Risk Score projections · 3 scenarios · Based on 2000-2023 trends
| Country | 2023 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 52.3 | 57.9 | 65.9 | 73.9 | +21.6 |
| Brazil | 48.1 | 53.0 | 60.0 | 67.0 | +18.9 |
| Argentina | 44.2 | 47.7 | 52.7 | 57.7 | +13.5 |
| Colombia | 45.5 | 51.8 | 60.8 | 69.8 | +24.3 |
| Chile | 41.0 | 43.8 | 47.8 | 51.8 | +10.8 |
| Peru | 49.3 | 56.3 | 66.3 | 76.3 | +27.0 |
| Uruguay | 38.1 | 40.2 | 43.2 | 46.2 | +8.1 |
| Bolivia | 55.2 | 63.6 | 75.6 | 87.6 | +32.4 |
Projections use linear extrapolation of 2000-2023 trends from the NCRA Dataset v1.0. Three scenarios: Optimistic (50% trend reduction via policy intervention), Base (current trends continue), Pessimistic (180% acceleration). For full methodology see DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19116685.