de la Serna Tuya, Juan Moisés

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📈 Projections 2050

NCRA Risk Score projections · 3 scenarios · Based on 2000-2023 trends

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19116685 NCRA Framework V13

Base: current trends continue · Optimistic: policy intervention · Pessimistic: no action

2050 Projections — Base Scenario

Country	2023	2030	2040	2050	Change
Mexico	52.3	57.9	65.9	73.9	+21.6
Brazil	48.1	53.0	60.0	67.0	+18.9
Argentina	44.2	47.7	52.7	57.7	+13.5
Colombia	45.5	51.8	60.8	69.8	+24.3
Chile	41.0	43.8	47.8	51.8	+10.8
Peru	49.3	56.3	66.3	76.3	+27.0
Uruguay	38.1	40.2	43.2	46.2	+8.1
Bolivia	55.2	63.6	75.6	87.6	+32.4

Projections based on NCRA Dataset v1.0 · de la Serna Tuya, Juan Moisés (2026) · Methodology DOI

⚙️ Methodology

Projections use linear extrapolation of 2000-2023 trends from the NCRA Dataset v1.0. Three scenarios: Optimistic (50% trend reduction via policy intervention), Base (current trends continue), Pessimistic (180% acceleration). For full methodology see DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19116685.